Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

192
FXUS65 KFGZ 040530
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1030 PM MST Sun May 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy winds and chances for high-based showers today
with cooler and unsettled weather returning through the middle of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A deep low pressure system currently located
off the off the coast of California is slowly propagating inland. A
subtle shortwave is swinging ahead of the low today, and bringing a
southerly surge of higher PW and dewpoints. Showers are firing along
and downwind the higher terrain this afternoon as a result. Showers
have remained fairly high based. Some measurable precipitation
will reach the ground, but will stay in the range of a few
hundredths. Away from gusty outflow winds, expect breezy south to
southwest winds gusting up to 30 mph as the gradient aloft begins
to tighten.

Monday...The California low continues its approach. We begin to see
a cooling trend as temperatures drop 5-10 degrees compared to
Sunday. Breezy southwesterly winds continue as the gradient aloft
tightens, however the magnitude of gusts generally peak in the 30-40
mph range due to cloud cover and shallow mixing. Localized gusts
over 40 mph will be possible, especially Monday evening downwind of
the San Francisco Peaks, Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains. Mostly
dry conditions are expected throughout the day on Monday, but some
showers may arrive to the White Mountains region by the evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The low finally reaches northern AZ,
bringing moisture, lift, and cold air aloft. The current forecast
calls for a 40-60% chance of rain on Tuesday mostly Mogollon Rim and
northward. Added afternoon instability will bring some thunderstorms
as well. Temperatures will be coldest on Tuesday, with daytime highs
5-15 degrees below normal. Into Wednesday, expect warming
temperatures with just some isolated showers as the low weakens
and the trough axis moves past our area. Gusts 30-40 mph are
possible in far eastern AZ on Tuesday, then lighter northwest
winds are expected Wednesday.

Thursday onward...Drier conditions are expected under predominantly
northwest flow, and temperatures return to above normal as heights
aloft recover.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 04/06Z through Tuesday 05/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA north of the I-40 corridor will
dissipate north of the Utah border by 07Z-09Z. S-SSW sfc winds from
10-20kts overnight. Sfc winds S-SW15-25g30-035kts redevelop AFT 18Z
Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 05/06Z through Thursday 07/06Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. SCT -SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA late Monday night through Tuesday
afternoon, especially east of the I-17 corridor and toward the Four
Corners. Some stronger showers may produce brief MVFR conditions.
All other periods dry. Sfc winds SW15-25g30-035kts continuing on
Tuesday, becoming NW10-20kts on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry conditions expected on
Monday with scattered showers on Tuesday. South to southwest
winds at 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Monday, decreasing
slightly on Tuesday. Minimum RH between 15-30% on Monday,
increasing to 25-50% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Isolated to scattered showers on
Wednesday, then dry conditions return for Thursday and Friday. West
to northwest winds at 5-15 mph on Wednesday, becoming variable on
Thursday, then west to northwest 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH
between 15-25% on Wednesday, decreasing to 10-20% for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff