Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

424
FXUS65 KFGZ 142316
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
416 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the western United States will
continue to bring daytime highs 5-15 degrees above normal and dry
conditions into next week. Locally gusty winds will persist into
this evening, with lighter winds expected by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure centered over northern California will
peak today with 500 mb heights reaching near 590 dam which is in the
99th+ percentile for mid January in that area. High temperatures
around our region, while 5-15 degrees above normal, aren`t quite
reaching into record territory due mostly to a persistent
northeasterly flow. This flow peaks today, with northeast winds
10-20 mph and locally gusting 25-35 mph in the favored downslope
spots along/south of the Mogollon Rim. By Thursday, the high
pressure center weakens slightly and shifts toward the Pac NW.
This will weaken pressure gradients across northern Arizona and
finally allow for the northeast winds to ease up with generally
5-10 mph speeds. Thursday is also expected to be the warmest day
of the week for most of us. Dry and generally mild conditions
continue Friday into early next week as the main storm track
remains over the eastern half of the country. A weak and dry cold
front may clip areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim for Friday
and Saturday, bringing up to 5 degrees of cooling and some briefly
gusty northeast winds, but highs will still be 5-10 degrees above
normal. This weak front will likely not affect temperatures at
all south of the Mogollon Rim due to the downslope warming effect.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 15/00Z through Wednesday 16/00Z...VFR
conditions. Winds N/NE 5-15 kts through 15Z, then subsiding to
around 5 kts. Locally gusty winds 20-30 kts downwind of the higher
terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 16/00Z through Sunday 18/00Z...VFR conditions
with N/NE 5-10 kts each day. Locally gusty winds 20-25 kts downwind
of the higher terrain overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry with temperatures 5-15
degrees above average. Winds N-NE 5-15 mph in the higher terrain,
light and variable lower terrain Thursday, increasing to N-NE 10-20
mph Friday. Afternoon minimum RH ranging from 20% lower deserts to
40% in the mountains Thursday, dropping to 15-25% on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry with temperatures continuing to be 5-
15 degrees above average. Winds light and variable in the high
deserts, N-NE 5-15 mph downslope of Mogollon Rim, San Francisco
Peaks and White Mountains. Afternoon minimum RH 15-25% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff