Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

315
FXUS65 KFGZ 042248
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 PM MST Sat Jul 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will influence our weather through the
weekend and into next week. Increasing moisture will bring isolated
chances for showers and thunderstorms, becoming more focused over
the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure settling across the Desert
Southwest this weekend will influence our weather over the next
week. The high is situated to our southeast this afternoon and
return flow around the high is dragging some moisture northward into
Arizona. Dew points to our south have crept up into the 30s but in
our area we are solidly in the teens to 20s. With such dry air in
place at the surface, it will take a bit to moisten up the layer and
any shower activity that does develop will struggle to reach the
ground. CAMs are hit or miss with current radar returns but all show
some sort of moisture advection into the region. Largely expect an
increase in cloud cover with some virga showers or sprinkles across
the region this afternoon. Can`t rule out an outside chance for a
more robust shower or brief thunderstorm, though best chances are
across the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim into the White
Mountains. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing
outflow gusts up to 35 mph into the early evening before we lose our
best instability.

The high starts to shift to the west on Sunday, which may allow for
a slightly better moisture pull but overall chances look similar to
those of today. The best chances continue to remain across the
higher terrain for Sunday.

The high strengthens and pushes further to the west at the start of
the week. AS the week progresses the high will start to move back to
the east but ends up settling well to our north by the end of the
week. This may ultimately limit moisture advection into the region,
especially across western portions of the forecast area, with the
best chances for showers or storms remaining towards the White
Mountains with some isolated chances along the Mogollon Rim through
the week. With the high to our north at the end of the week, we lose
the best fetch and moisture looks like it dwindles. The flow may
become more northeast-east than east-southeast, so not ideal for
continued monsoon chances. Any shift in the location of the high may
impact our chances so don`t give up hope just yet that we may see a
more favorable pattern develop as we go through the week. Overall,
chances for widespread storms looks marginal and most of the
expected activity looks to only bring some light precipitation
amounts to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 05/00Z through Monday 06/00Z...VFR conditions,
with occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. FU will
impact KFLG mainly during the afternoon, and KSEZ mainly during the
overnight and early morning hours. Winds light and VRB, becoming
S/SW 5-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 06/00Z through Wednesday 08/00Z...VFR conditions,
with occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. Winds S-W 5-
15 kts each day, becoming light and VRB overnight. Gusty outflow
winds possible in and around ISO -SHRA/-TSRA, mainly over the higher
terrain each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Monsoon moisture begins moving
into the area, primarily increasing in the mid-levels. As a result,
the forecast only calls for a 10-20% chance of light showers over
high terrain, with even lower chances for thunderstorms. Because
surface conditions remain quite dry, minimum humidity is forecast to
range from 10-20% both afternoons, and the chances for wetting rain
are less than 10%. The primary concerns are outflow wind gusts up to
35 mph, along with new fire starts if a few thunderstorms do
develop. Otherwise, expect southwest winds 10-20 mph and gusts 20-30
mph each afternoon, with the higher gusts on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures warm to above normal.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain
in eastern Arizona each afternoon. Winds southwest 10-15 mph with
gusts to 20-25 mph and minimum RH values between 5-20% each
afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff