Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

788
FXUS65 KFGZ 251049
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
349 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Despite cooler/wetter conditions the next few days,
daytime highs are forecast to land above normal through at least
tomorrow for much of northern AZ. Rain showers will continue
through Friday, with dropping snow levels expected on Saturday.
Accumulation of new snow could reach down to 6500 feet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Rain continues to fall across portions of our CWA.
The heaviest band is currently extending from Crown King up to
Flagstaff. Overall, rainfall amounts have been mostly half an
inch or less within the last 6 hours. A few localized areas where
upsloping influenced heavier rainfall have seen closer to 0.75
inches, primarily across higher terrain in Yavapai County.
Precipitation looks to persist through the evening hours today,
before a brief lull in activity rolls around for Friday. A few
isolated showers will still be possible throughout the day, but
overall weather should be a bit quieter immediately following the
Christmas Holiday.

We won`t be completely out of the woods from this system yet. By
early Saturday, the axis of the low pressure system funneling in
the recent moisture will move closer to Arizona. As a result,
another round of showers is expected across our CWA. Only this
time snow levels look to drop closer to 6500`, so light snow
accumulation in populated areas is possible. We may also need an
Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 7000` across the
Kaibab Plateau on Saturday, but we are going to hold off on
issuing anything until our confidence grows in the snowfall
amounts for this location. As for portions of I-17 & I-40, our
forecast currently suggests 0.1-0.3 inches of snow accumulation.
Although these amounts are rather low, it doesn`t take much to
create slick road conditions. Be sure to triple check the forecast
if you`re traveling on Saturday.

By Sunday, model guidance begins to diverge on what our synoptic
pattern will look like. Overall, there`s agreement that the main
low pressure system will be mostly east of Arizona. There could be
a secondary closed low that extends off the main system towards
the Four Corners, but this likely won`t result in much outside of
a few lingering showers. Mild and dry weather should move in
through at least the beginning of next week, but more unsettled
weather could return towards the New Year.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 25/12Z through Friday 26/12Z...Areas of MVFR/IFR
conditions in scattered SHRA will continue. S-SW winds 10-20 kts
with gusts 25-30 kts through the day, gradually diminishing to
5-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts after 01Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 26/12Z through Sunday 28/12Z...Areas of MVFR/IFR
conditions will continue in scattered SHRA through 18Z Friday.
After 18Z, expect generally improving conditions but with a
chance for SHRASN and MVFR conditions returning Friday night into
Saturday evening over the higher terrain. S-SW winds 10-20 kts
gusting to 25 kts each day. Areas of LLWS possible Friday night at
more sheltered locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Look for periods of rain. The
greatest chances will be along and west of the Mogollon Rim and
Kaibab Plateau where wetting rain is possible. Drier conditions with
more isolated activity sets in on Friday. Winds south/southwest 10-
20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph each day.

Saturday through Monday...Rain and mountain snow showers are
expected on Saturday, with drier conditions setting in for Sunday
and Monday. Wetting rains will remain primarily along and west of
the Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateau. Winds southwest 10-20 mph on
Saturday, becoming northeast for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff