Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS65 KFGZ 100745
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1245 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and mainly dry conditions persists through the
start of this week. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible each afternoon, primarily from the Mogollon Rim and
south. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms look to
potentially return by the middle of this week, along with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure over southern Arizona and
southern New Mexico begins to retrograde as shortwave moves
through Utah and Colorado. Dry northwesterly flow sets in across
much of the area as the high then begins to build over the Great
Basin, keeping mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures in
store. An outflow from a decaying MCS over southeastern Arizona
this morning may help to transport some moisture northward by this
afternoon to at least the Mogollon Rim and south. Otherwise, the
dry air looks to win out and keep much of the afternoon in the
clear. Breezy winds can also be expected this afternoon given the
increased pressure gradient from the nearby shortwave.

Monday and Tuesday...The high continues to strengthen through the
start of the week. With flow aloft continually pumping in drier air
from the northwest, the chances for showers and thunderstorms any
given day remain bleak. The best shot will continue to be mainly
from the Mogollon Rim and south with any potential moisture
transport from decaying convection over the Lower Deserts.

Wednesday through Saturday...Model guidance looks to gradually shift
the high further eastward through the week as a trough begins to
develop over the Pacific Northwest. This looks to potentially tilt
the odds in our favor for showers and thunderstorms near the middle
of the week. Confidence in exact coverage remains low through
however, as every day the trough moves closer, drier westerly flow
begins to set in. Cooler more seasonable temperatures look to set in
across northern Arizona as well, however this will also be somewhat
dependent upon the moisture increase and resulting cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 10/06Z through Monday 11/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA through 03Z. Localized areas
of haze/smoke due to fires around the area. Light winds overnight
will turn west-northwest with gusts 20-25kts on Sunday. ISOLD to
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA Sunday afternoon, with gusty winds around any
showers.

OUTLOOK...Monday 11/06Z through Wednesday 13/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions with localized areas of haze/smoke from area fires.
Look for daily chances for -SHRA/-TSRA, primarily across the
higher terrain between 18Z-03Z. Outside of the gusty storm driven
winds, expect west to northwest winds at 5-15 kts gusting up to
20 kts. Light and variable winds should return during the
overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Hot, breezy, and mainly dry
conditions are expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon, mainly from the Mogollon Rim and south.
Winds west 10-20 mph today, becoming west/northwest 5-15 mph on
Monday. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around thunderstorms.
Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Turning cooler with increasing chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Winds west 5-15
mph each afternoon. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around
thunderstorms. Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20% on Tuesday, rising
each day to near 15-30% by Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff