Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

196
FXUS65 KFGZ 141120
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 AM MST Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A deep trough will continue to push through the
region today, bringing gusty winds and cooler conditions. A
series of weak short-waves will keep mild temperatures and typical
spring-like breezes through the end of the week. A larger storm
system looks to impact the state by the end of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large area of low pressure currently centered over
eastern Idaho continues to bring cooler temperatures and gusty
southwest winds across the state. These elevated winds aren`t taking
a break tonight, with wind gusts across the White Mountains being
reported between 30-45 mph. This trough will continue to push
eastward today focusing our gusty winds across the eastern portion
of the state. As a result, a Red Flag Warning remains is in effect
for our zones bordering New Mexico between 9 AM MST (10 AM MDT) and
6 PM MST (7 PM MDT) today.

Thursday and Friday...A couple of weak short-waves look to impact
the state for the second half of the week, but impacts will be
minor. Temperatures look to slightly rebound each afternoon, but
should remain below to near normal for this time of year and
winds will revert back to typical spring-like breezes. Dry
conditions are forecast to continue, so although gusty winds are
not a major concern going towards the end of the week, relative
humidities are forecast to remain generally 15% or below. Continue
to be mindful of any open flames/sparks and please properly
dispose of cigarettes.

Over the Weekend...Another deep trough is forecast to push down
from the Pacific Northwest later this weekend. Winds look to
increase ahead of the core of this system, with southwest winds
gusting 35-45 mph possible. Strong southwest winds are expected to
remain in the forecast through Sunday, with gusts reaching 40-50
mph along and north of the Mogollon Rim. There could be additional
fire weather concerns for the southern half of our CWA this
weekend, especially across the White Mountains. Areas along and
north of I-40 could get lucky and receive some precipitation out
of the center of this trough. There`s still time to hash out the
details behind this disturbance, so if this pattern digs further
south, we could see moisture extend closer to the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains.

Next Week...Lingering moisture across eastern Arizona could be
possible as the previously mentioned deep trough exits the region.
Otherwise, mild weather looks to return.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 14/12Z through Thursday 15/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW-W10-cactus, higher gusts to 35kts
over Apache County. Areas BKN CIGS AOA 8-10kft AGL, mainly north of
the I-40 corridor through Wednesday evening. Winds becoming light
Wednesday night.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 15/12Z through Saturday 17/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds SW10-20kts Thursday, increasing to 15-25kts on
Friday. Winds generally light in the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry with below normal
daytime temperatures. A few sprinkles possible Wednesday near the
Utah border. Winds turning west-southwest 15 to 25 mph Wednesday,
higher gusts to near 40 mph over Apache County today has prompted
the continuation of a Red Flag Warning. Winds southwesterly 10 to 20
mph on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Warmer and dry Friday, southwest winds 10 to
20 mph continuing. Turning windy and cooler Saturday, with areas of
Critical Fire Weather conditions possible. Even cooler Sunday, rain
and snow showers spreading east to west through the day. Southwest
winds 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph Saturday. Southwest winds
15 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 45 mph on Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM MST /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 6 PM
MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ111-114-117.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff